Nintendo's Cautious Outlook on Switch 2 Sales Amid Tariff Concerns

Nintendo has released what industry analysts are calling a "conservative" sales forecast for the eagerly anticipated Nintendo Switch 2, amid uncertainties surrounding ongoing tariffs. In their latest financial report this morning, Nintendo projected sales of 15 million Switch 2 consoles and 45 million game units for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The highly anticipated Switch 2 is set to hit the shelves on June 5.

The company's forecast hinges on the assumption that the U.S. tariff rates implemented on April 10 will remain unchanged throughout the fiscal year. However, Nintendo acknowledges that any modifications to these tariff rates could impact their projections. "We will continue to monitor the situation to respond to changes in market conditions," the company stated.

Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, described the 15 million unit forecast as "conservative." In a tweet, Ahmad suggested that Nintendo's cautious outlook likely accounts for uncertainties related to tariffs, pricing, and production, despite strong pre-order momentum. He further noted that Nintendo might revise its forecast upwards if the tariff situation improves. "However, the main issue right now is the knock-on effects that are already in motion and creating a challenging environment for a console launch. Not to mention the threat of increased tariffs," Ahmad added.

It's noteworthy that should the Switch 2 achieve 15 million sales in its debut year, it would rank among the most successful console launches in history, surpassing the original Nintendo Switch's first-year sales of 14.87 million units.

The demand for the Nintendo Switch 2 appears to be substantial. Following a delay attributed to tariffs, pre-orders for the console opened on April 24, with the price set at $449.99. The response was overwhelming, as expected. Additionally, Nintendo has cautioned U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store that delivery on the release date is not guaranteed due to the high demand.

For more details, check out IGN's comprehensive Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.