Analyst Predicts Nintendo Switch 2 Sales for 2025

Summary

• An analyst predicts that the Switch 2 will sell 4.3 million units in the US in 2025, assuming a launch within the first half of the year.
• The analyst believes the Switch 2 will perform strongly, but the PS5 may lead in US console sales.
• High anticipation surrounds the Nintendo Switch 2, yet its success could hinge on launch timing, hardware quality, and the competitiveness of its game lineup.

Gaming industry analyst Mat Piscatella has forecasted that the Nintendo Switch 2 could sell approximately 4.3 million units in the US during 2025, provided it launches in the first half of the year. This prediction is set against the backdrop of the original Nintendo Switch's impressive performance, which sold 4.8 million units by the end of 2017, exceeding Nintendo's initial expectations. To meet demand back then, Nintendo had to airlift additional units, leading fans to hope that better planning will be in place for the Switch 2's release.

The gaming community is eagerly awaiting the announcement of Nintendo's next console, with the Switch 2 frequently trending on social media. This buzz reflects widespread excitement, though translating this into sales will depend on multiple factors including launch timing and the quality of both the hardware and its game lineup.

Circana's video game analyst, Mat Piscatella, expects the Nintendo Switch 2 to capture about one-third of the US video game console market in 2025, excluding portable PCs like the Steam Deck or ROG Ally. Many speculate that the Switch 2 might launch by April 2025, strategically timed to capitalize on sales during Japan's Golden Week holiday and the global summer season.

Seeing as how an announcement appears to be coming soon (but who knows) - I have Nintendo's next hardware device selling 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 (assuming 1H launch), accounting for approximately 1/3rd of all video game console hardware units sold in the year (excluding PC Portables).— Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) 2025-01-08T16:09:43.754Z

Piscatella's analysis also touches on potential supply constraints due to high demand for the Switch 2. While it's unclear how much manufacturing capacity Nintendo has secured, there's optimism that the company has learned from past launches and prepared adequately to avoid shortages similar to those experienced with the original Switch and the PS5.

Despite the strong sales forecast for the Switch 2, Piscatella predicts that the PlayStation 5 will continue to dominate the US market. The Switch 2's success could be influenced by the excitement it generates, but it faces competition from other anticipated titles slated for the PS5 in 2025, including the potentially massive "Grand Theft Auto 6," which may not be available on Nintendo systems. The Switch 2's hardware capabilities and its launch game lineup will be critical in determining whether it can lead the market.