Analysts on Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-order Chaos: 'Unhinged Times' Due to Tariffs

The gaming community in the U.S. has been on an emotional roller coaster this week. It all started with the much-anticipated full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, showcasing its innovative features and exciting game lineup. However, the excitement quickly turned to concern when the $450 price tag for the console and the $80 price for Mario Kart Tour were announced. The roller coaster took another sharp turn this morning when Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders to assess the impact of the Trump Administration's sudden and sweeping tariffs on global trade.

We've previously discussed the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential impact of these tariffs on the gaming industry. Now, the burning question is: what will Nintendo do? Will the Nintendo Switch 2's price increase when pre-orders finally open?

Typically, when faced with such industry uncertainties, I consult a panel of expert analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a well-informed consensus backed by data. This week alone, I've already written two articles based on their insights. However, this time, every analyst I spoke with was stumped, offering only cautious guesses about whether Nintendo would raise prices. The consensus was clear: the situation is unprecedented and evolving too rapidly for anyone to predict with confidence what Nintendo, the Trump administration, or any other stakeholders might do next.

With this significant caveat in mind, here's a summary of the analysts' thoughts:

Sky-High Switch

The analysts were divided on the potential price increase. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially believed it was too late for Nintendo to adjust prices post-announcement. However, the delay in pre-orders changed his perspective. He now believes Nintendo might have no choice but to raise prices for the system, games, and accessories. "It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes," he said. "I hope I am wrong, but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't."

Dr. Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing: "Why on earth did Nintendo not wait for the US to fix their tariffs first and then decide on pricing during a Direct a few days later? This made no sense."

Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the sentiment of unpredictability but also leaned towards a price increase. He noted that the tariffs were much higher than anticipated, forcing businesses to reevaluate their pricing strategies. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," he emphasized. He also mentioned that the US could join other regions with historically higher game prices due to these tariffs.

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicted an increase in hardware prices but suggested that software prices might be less affected due to the dominance of digital distribution. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he explained. However, he added that if a significant tariff were introduced, companies like Nintendo might not absorb the cost and would instead pass it on to consumers.

Holding the Line

On the other side of the debate, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledged the possibility of a price increase but believed Nintendo would try hard to maintain the announced $449.99 price. He suggested that Nintendo had already factored in potential tariff volatility into the initial pricing. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks," he noted. He added that the unpredictability of the tariffs could force Nintendo to find ways to offset additional costs without raising prices.

Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agreed that Nintendo faces a dilemma after announcing the launch price. He suggested that Nintendo would prefer to keep the price as announced until at least 2026, but the delay in pre-orders indicates they are seeking a solution. "Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now," he said. He warned that a price change could impact the brand's perception among US consumers, particularly during the crucial first holiday season.

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicted higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He referenced his previous comments about Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in some markets to encourage digital purchases. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital, as I mentioned my comments to IGN about Mario Kart World’s pricing," he said. He also painted a grim picture of the broader impact of tariffs on the games industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. Elliott criticized the tariffs for their detrimental effects on consumers and the economy, describing the current situation as "unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)." He argued that tariffs violate core economic principles and harm the economy.

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