Switch 2 Predicted as the Best Selling Next-Gen Console Despite Not Even Being Out Yet

DFC Intelligence, a leading video game market research firm, predicts the Nintendo Switch 2 will be a runaway success, projecting sales of 15 to 17 million units in its first year—outpacing all competitors. Let's dive into this exciting forecast.

Switch 2: The Clear Winner?

80 Million Units by 2028?

Image from Nintendo

DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, boldly declares the Nintendo Switch 2 the "clear winner" in the next-generation console race. Nintendo is poised to dominate the console market, leaving Microsoft and Sony playing catch-up. This prediction stems from the Switch 2's anticipated earlier release (rumored for 2025) and a relatively sparse competitive landscape at launch. These advantages fuel the projection of 15-17 million units sold in 2025, soaring to over 80 million by 2028. The report even suggests Nintendo might struggle to meet the anticipated high demand.

Image from Mario official Nintendo site

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing their own handheld consoles, these projects appear to be in the early stages. DFC Intelligence notes that new consoles from these companies are unlikely before 2028. This three-year head start for the Switch 2 (unless a surprise release occurs in 2026) solidifies its projected dominance. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success, hinting that a hypothetical "PS6" could be a strong contender, leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and powerful intellectual properties.

Adding to the positive outlook, the Nintendo Switch's lifetime sales have recently surpassed those of the PlayStation 2 in the United States, as reported by Circana (formerly NPD). Mat Piscatella, executive director and analyst at Circana, highlighted on BlueSky that the Switch, with 46.6 million units sold, is now the second best-selling console in US history, trailing only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is particularly impressive considering the Switch's reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.

A Bright Future for the Video Game Industry

DFC Intelligence's report paints a rosy picture for the video game industry as a whole. David Cole, the firm's founder and CEO, states that after a two-year slump, the industry is poised for robust growth through the end of the decade, having grown over 20 times in the last three decades. 2025 is predicted to be a banner year, fueled by new product releases and renewed consumer enthusiasm. In addition to the Switch 2, the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI is expected to launch in 2025, further boosting overall sales.

This thriving industry will continue to expand its audience, projected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027. The rising popularity of "high-end gaming-on-the-go" with portable systems is making gaming more accessible. The growth of esports and gaming influencers is also driving hardware sales, both for PCs and consoles.